Spatio-Temporal Simulation and Change Analysis of Land Use on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Under Future Scenarios

Wei Xiong; XiaoLong Jiang

doi:10.63313/AERpc.9061

Authors

Wei Xiong College of Horticulture and Landscape Architecture, Yangtze University, Jingzhou City, Hubei Province 434025, China Author
XiaoLong Jiang College of Horticulture and Landscape Architecture, Yangtze University, Jingzhou City, Hubei Province 434025, China Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.63313/AERpc.9061

Keywords:

Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Land use change, PLUS model, Multi-scenario simulation

Abstract

As a sensitive response zone to global change and a critical ecological barrier, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau's land use and land cover change (LUCC) profoundly impacts regional ecological security and sustainable development. To systematically analyze its evolution patterns and project future trends, this study integrated three phases of remote sensing data from 2000 to 2020. coupled with multi-source drivers including topography, climate, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors. Employing the PLUS (Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) model, we simulated and revealed the spatiotemporal differentiation and transformation mechanisms of LUCC on the Tibetan Plateau over the past two decades. We further projected land use patterns for 2060 under three scenarios: Natural Development (ND), Water Resource Protection (WP), and Sustainable Development (SD). Results indicate: ①Between 2000 and 2020, the land use structure of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau generally maintained a pattern of "grassland as the dominant type, with unutilized land as the secondary type." Grassland area increased from 132.26×10⁴ km² to 134.73×10⁴ km², and its proportion rose from 51.37% to 52.33%. Unutilized land decreased from 101.57×10⁴ km² to 98.57×10⁴ km², with its proportion declining from 39.45% to 38.28%; Forest land, water bodies, and constructed land all showed slight increases, while cultivated land decreased marginally. Overall changes were limited in magnitude but exhibited clear trends. ②Significant spatial differentiation in LUCC emerged, revealing a gradient pattern: concentrated forest land in the southeast, extensive grassland in the central region, and dominant unutilized land in the northwest. Constructed land expanded slowly along river valleys and transportation corridors in a "point-axis" pattern. ③Multi-scenario simulations indicate that by 2060, the SD scenario demonstrates the most optimal comprehensive performance in ecological conservation and construction control; the WP scenario significantly promotes the expansion of forest and water areas; while the ND scenario may delay ecological improvement processes. The land use evolution mechanisms clarified under these policy scenarios provide scientific basis for optimizing territorial space and advancing ecological conservation and restoration on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

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