Research on the Initial Quota Allocation Scheme for Carbon Emission Rights in the Yangtze River Delta Region

Abstract

Under the severe challenge of global climate change, the scientific allocation of carbon emission rights is of decisive significance for achieving regional emission reduction targets and accelerating low-carbon transformation. As one of the most developed regions in China's economy, the Yangtze River Delta region has a relatively high proportion of total carbon emissions in the country, and there are significant differences in the level of economic development and carbon emission intensity within the region. This difference not only reflects the imbalance between regions, but also poses challenges to the fair and efficient allocation of carbon emission rights. This article takes three provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta region, including Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui, as the research object, and studies three initial carbon emission quota allocation schemes to promote carbon peak in 2030. The aim is to provide theoretical support and practical guidance for the construction of carbon markets in the Yangtze River Delta region and even the whole country. Firstly, this article proposes a carbon quota allocation scheme guided by fairness. This plan is based on the principles of historical responsibility and transfer of responsibility, and uses an improved grandfather law model for quota allocation. The principle of historical responsibility emphasizes that each region should bear corresponding emission reduction responsibilities based on its past carbon emissions, while transferring responsibilities considers the spatial transfer effect of carbon emissions. Through this method, the plan not only considers the economic development level and carbon emission history of each region, but also takes into account the fairness between regions. The research results indicate that this scheme significantly reduces the Gini coefficient of quota allocation between regions, demonstrating strong fairness. However, this approach may also suppress the emission reduction enthusiasm of some high emission areas, thereby affecting the overall emission reduction efficiency. Secondly, this article proposes an efficiency oriented carbon quota allocation scheme. This scheme introduces the idea of zero sum game and uses the ZSG-SBM model to calculate the efficiency of each region and allocate quotas accordingly. The core of this plan is to optimize resource allocation and ensure that carbon emission rights can flow reasonably between different regions, thereby maximizing overall efficiency. Through multiple iterations and adjustments, this plan has enabled more regions to reach the forefront of technological efficiency. However, the Gini coefficient of this plan is relatively high, and there is a risk of the Matthew effect, where economically developed regions receive more quotas while underdeveloped regions face the problem of insufficient quotas. Finally, this article proposes a hybrid approach that balances fairness and efficiency. This scheme adopts the entropy method to integrate the results of fairness and efficiency schemes, forming a comprehensive allocation scheme. The entropy method determines the weights by calculating the information entropy of each indicator, avoiding the bias that may be caused by subjective weighting methods. The research results indicate that the emission reduction cost of the comprehensive plan is lower than that of a single plan. This plan not only ensures the low-carbon transformation space in economically developed areas, but also reserves development rights for underdeveloped areas, achieving a synergistic optimization of efficiency and fairness. This study not only provides theoretical support for the reasonable allocation of initial carbon emission quotas in the Yangtze River Delta region, but also provides useful references for the allocation of carbon quotas in other regions of the country. Future research can further explore the coupling relationship between carbon quota allocation and regional economic growth, and quantify the long-term impact of different schemes on industrial structure upgrading. In addition, how to connect policy tools such as carbon tariffs and green finance with quota allocation mechanisms, and build a multi-level emission reduction incentive system, is also a direction worth exploring in depth.