The Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on Farmers' Income in Jiangsu Province, China

Abstract

Using Jiangsu Province as a case study, this paper examines whether the expansion of digital inclusive finance is associated with higher farmers' income at the prefecture level. Based on panel data for prefecture-level cities from 2015 to 2024, the study combines descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and multiple linear regression to evaluate the relationship between per capita disposable income and a set of loan-based indicators representing digital inclusive finance, including overall lending, agricultural loans, loans to small and micro enterprises, and personal consumption loans. The results show that farmers' income in Jiangsu increased steadily during the sample period, while substantial regional heterogeneity remained. Regression estimates suggest that per capita GDP and urbanization are positively associated with income growth, whereas industrial output and fiscal expenditure are negatively associated with the dependent variable in the estimated specification. The coefficients of the core loan-related variables are positive or mixed in direction but do not reach conventional levels of statistical significance after controls are introduced. Taken together, the findings imply that digital inclusive finance may support farmers' income through broader regional development channels, but its direct income effect is not robustly identified in the present model. The paper therefore argues for cautious interpretation, stronger rural digital infrastructure, better-targeted financial products, and further research using richer indicators and identification strategies.