Structural Resilience in the Cobalt Industry Chain Trade Network: Evolution and Evaluation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63313/EBM.9215Keywords:
Cobalt, Industry Chain, Trade Network Structural ResilienceAbstract
As a strategic mineral, cobalt is a new focus of global competition. Studying its industry chain via trade network structural resilience is crucial for optimizing industrial layout and enhancing security. This study constructs a degree distribution and degree correlation bivariate model to analyze the resilience evolution of global upstream, midstream, and downstream cobalt trade networks from 2011 to 2023. Conclusions show: (1)Regarding node characteristics, China, the US, and Germany are active core nodes. China plays a multidimensional role: heavily relying on upstream raw ore imports, acting as a midstream processing hub, and holding prominent downstream export advantages; (2)Regarding hierarchical structure, overall network differentiation is minor. The upstream hierarchy is weakening with intensified flattening, while midstream and downstream hierarchies are slightly strengthening with prominent stereoscopic features; (3)Regarding network matching properties, the overall network exhibits disassortative features. Upstream disassortative features are slightly enhancing via close cross-tier interactions, whereas midstream and downstream assortative features are increasing, weakening cross-tier connectivity and undermining matching resilience; (4)Regarding resilience evolutionary levels, structural resilience fluctuates significantly, ranking as downstream greater than upstream, and upstream greater than midstream. The downstream shows robust adaptive repair, while the midstream, constrained by capacity agglomeration barriers, exhibits sluggish recovery and the sharpest decline in risk resistance. Policy recommendations include: perfecting safeguard systems for a sound industrial ecology; deepening overseas deployment to fortify supply; advancing collaborative restructuring for independent controllability; and expanding multilateral trade networks for new competitive advantages. This study provides a valuable reference for safeguarding China's strategic mineral security and stable industry operations.
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